Nate Silver Quotes
Top 90 wise famous quotes and sayings by Nate Silver
Nate Silver Famous Quotes & Sayings
Discover top inspirational quotes from Nate Silver on Wise Famous Quotes.
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
The ratings agencies' problem was in being unable or uninterested in appreciating the distinction between risk and uncertainty.
New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.
Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things.
Sometimes the only solution when the data is very noisy - is to focus more on process than on results.
If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome.
The litmus test for whether you are a competent forecaster is if more information makes your predictions better.
The more interviews that an expert had done with the press, Tetlock found, the worse his predictions tended to be.
I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
Herd immunity - the biological equivalent of a firewall in which the disease has too few opportunities to spread and dies out.
The story the data tells us is often the one we'd like to hear, and we usually make sure that it has a happy ending.
We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.
Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
Essentially, the frequentist approach toward statistics seeks to wash its hands of the reason that predictions most often go wrong: human error.
By playing games you can artificially speed up your learning curve to develop the right kind of thought processes.
Racism is predictable. It's predicted by interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.
On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves.
I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.
Under Bayes' theorem, no theory is perfect. Rather, it is a work in progress, always subject to further refinement and testing.
If there is a mutual distrust between the weather forecaster and the public, the public may not listen when they need to most.
I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
In the 1990s, economists predicted only 2 of the 60 recessions around the world a year ahead of time.
We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things - and we aren't very good at it.
People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.